CALIFORNIA — November 3, 2026. As polls closed at 8 p.m., California Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, chairman of the conservative organization Reform California, published a video explaining why early election returns can change over the following days and weeks. His central point is accurate: election-night results are preliminary, and California counties continue verifying and counting valid ballots during the official canvass. But several of his numerical estimates and criticisms are his own analysis, not statewide rules or certified election data.
Three stages of results, according to DeMaio
DeMaio describes an initial round around 8 p.m., additional updates around midnight or early morning, and a final certified count weeks later. He says early totals consist largely of previously processed mail and early ballots, while later updates add Election Day voting and outstanding mail and provisional ballots. He warns that close contests can change as new ballots are counted.
These stages are a useful general explanation, but there is no single uniform 8:05 p.m., midnight or 2 a.m. reporting schedule for all 58 counties. Each county publishes its own updates. For example, Sacramento County’s official 2026 schedule lists initial results at 8:15 p.m., a second update at 10:15 p.m., and later updates if needed. The Secretary of State says counties must begin reporting within two hours after starting their post-closing tally. Sacramento County results schedule; California’s official canvass guidance.
What he said about the early ballot numbers
DeMaio cited a campaign-tracking dataset showing roughly 6.6 million returned ballots, or about 28% of registered voters, by Election Day. He suggested that initial returns could represent less than half of the eventual vote. These figures are attributed to his presentation and depend on the date and coverage of the underlying tracking dataset. Returned ballots are not the same thing as counted ballots, and party registration does not establish how any individual voted.
He also suggested that early mail ballots may differ politically from in-person Election Day ballots. Such differences can occur, but the magnitude and direction vary by election, geography and counting procedures; they are not a rule for every county or contest. A lead in partial returns is not a certified victory, and a later change in percentages is not by itself evidence of irregularity.
Why ballots are counted after Election Day
The California Secretary of State explains that county election officials must verify voter eligibility, examine signatures on vote-by-mail envelopes, process provisional and conditional-registration ballots, and conduct a public 1% manual tally of ballots tabulated by voting systems. Valid mailed ballots postmarked by November 3 may arrive as late as November 10. Some voters must be given an opportunity to correct missing or mismatched signatures. These safeguards take time and apply to ballots cast under California law. Official canvass explanation; Official election dates.
DeMaio criticized the length of the process and argued that changes to voter identification rules could accelerate tabulation. He advocated Proposition 39, a voter-ID measure. This is a political position. The video does not independently establish that his preferred changes would produce statewide certified results within one or two days, nor that the current counting timetable reflects misconduct.
What about media projections?
DeMaio said he sometimes makes early calls in contests with large leads but avoids doing so in close races. Media projections are analytical judgments; election authorities certify the actual totals. California58 will distinguish projections, unofficial county returns and certified results, and will not declare winners solely from a candidate’s suggested margin threshold.
When results become official
County canvassing may continue for 30 days after November 3. The California Secretary of State is scheduled to certify statewide results by December 11, 2026. County reporting schedules and remaining-ballot estimates are available through official election offices. Official California election results; State canvass process.
Watch DeMaio’s full explanation
The accompanying video is DeMaio’s own political commentary, presented here as a newsworthy statement by a California elected official. His interpretations and proposals should not be mistaken for independent findings by California58. Original video: Carl DeMaio / Reform California.
Editorial note: This report draws on the supplied November 3 transcript and California election authorities. The speaker’s numerical estimates and claims are attributed; procedural facts are cross-checked against the Secretary of State. California58 does not endorse the speaker’s ballot-measure position.
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